Sunday, June 13, 2004
Posted by M at 2:00 PM
This post at Marginal Revolution on the wisdom of crowds raises the issue that betting markets are more than just the average of polls. Just a quick glance at the graph shows the discrepancy is not just noise. Certainly a large part of this knowledge has to be that the market participants are also betting on their own future decisions. I think the SEC should be prosecuting most of these market participants for insider trading.